The Covid Travel Planner

July 9, 2020
Posted in Insight
July 9, 2020 Kate Neale

The Covid Travel Planner

Dreaming of your next opportunity to hop across Australia’s isolated shores to travel and meet people? This handy map from the CSSE at Johns Hopkins University might help with your planning. Don’t forget your Covid friendly travel insurance though…

Seems like the only thing traveling across borders and continents is Covid and the statistics don’t support a theory that we should be complacent or not fearful of it’s lethal nature (see stats to right of map, per country at left of map or click on any specific spot on the map to get a detailed overview).

With just on 12 million total global confirmed cases and almost 550,000 deaths globally at time of writing (July 9, 2020), statistics on survival rates in different countries or regions of countries give some insight into why this virus is a rascal to measure and interpret. For instance in:

  • New York (population 8.399 M) there have been 31,251 deaths and 71,185 recovered (a little under half of cases die)
  • New Jersey (pop 8.882 M) is consistent with 15,332 deaths and 30,844 recovered while
  • Massachusetts (pop 6.893 M) there have been 8,243 deaths and 94,347 recoveries

How to explain how Massachusetts, a community generally recognised for its affluence, with roughly one million less people, can record three times as many cases as their neighbouring communities, but less than half as many deaths? With three times as many cases identified, is their exposure to the virus far greater, perhaps through non observance of the recommended avoidance tactics (most likely) or is their resistance hugely compromised due to inferior health status (less likely). In fact have they had less deaths and more recoveries because they have better health or do they seek and get medical attention or intervention earlier?

Closer to home, the vehemently locked down Queensland, whose borders have been closed for three months at time of writing, has had 1,068 cases and six deaths, while Victoria had locals locked down for two months, but the locals were more exposed to the virus as the borders remained open. Hence Victoria has had 2,942 cases and 22 deaths ie. roughly a quarter of cases with a quarter of the number of fatalities, demonstrating Victorians far greater exposure to the virus, but with statistically consistent effect.

The anomalies of population density, geographical disparity and promiscuous security personnel not withstanding, Australia’s Covid experience between the distanced east coast states, has been distinctly different to that of the distinctly different in demographic terms but similar in societal terms of the New York State area. No wonder those charged with finding a panacea for this pandemic are mightily challenged.

For those who also like to interpret what statistics are telling us about life and what it means when life generates statistics, this is a very interesting site. I’d love to hear the insights of others on what they see in the map.

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